Alex Len standing tall in Phoenix
Alex Len averaged a very respectable 12.5 points and 10 rebounds per game for his Phoenix Suns from the All-Star break through the end of the 2015-2016 season. One could easily discount the statistics as a product of a losing team trying to develop a young big man, but that would be a disservice to the player. The truth is that from the All-Star break on, almost half the league’s teams were trying to develop their young players for next year. The other half would be very satisfied if their big men put up the numbers Len posted for the Suns.
In a 12-game stretch immediately after the break, Len joined some elite company in posting an average of 17 points, plus 12 rebounds per game, with nine straight 10-plus rebound games (eight of which were double-doubles). Len posted numbers matched or exceeded by All-Star big men Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Pau Gasol and Miami’s Hassan Whiteside.
Len almost doubled his career averages with his production in the latter half of this past season. In 2014-2015, when he started 44 of 69 games, Len managed 6.3 points and 6.6 rebounds in 22 minutes. Over the first half of the 2015-2016 campaign, he scored 6.9 points and 6.2 boards in 19.5 minutes per contest. After the break and the trade of Markieff Morris – which opened up a starting spot, creating a need for scoring – Len broke out to the tune of 12.5 points and 10 rebounds in less than 30 minutes.
Areas still to improve on include a poor shooting percentage (42.3 percent), mainly due to Len taking so many mid-range shots and creating offense from a post-up position as a power forward in the Suns’ line-up. He must work on his blocks (0.8 per game) and commit less fouls (2.9) to become even more of an asset to his club.
Can Len continue his production this season? The return of Brandon Knight and expected progression by Devin Booker may mean the Suns won’t require scoring from Len. Having Eric Bledsoe and T.J.Warren back in the rotation, plus the eventual indoctrination of top draft pick Dragan Bender would also imply less scoring from Len.
What the Suns definitely need long-term from Len is his rebounding. He has always been a solid rebounder, but he stepped it up big time in the second half of last season. At one time he was rated eighth in the NBA in rebound percentage among big men playing 18 minutes per game.
Among the league’s top rebounders, Len stands out. Most players with higher rebound rates are much less skilled offensively (Detroit’s Andre Drummond, Denver’s Kenneth Faried, Clipper DeAndre Jordan, Utah’s Rudy Gobert) or play little/no defense (David Lee, Enes Kanter).
Len has the acumen to be a defensive stalwart. Even in the lost season of 2015-2016, while defending the rim against constant drives by guards blowing past Brandon Knight, Archie Goodwin and Devin Booker, Len gave up only 50 percent shooting and was one of the best on the team at keeping opponents at or below their average field goal rate.
Len finally got healthy and finally began to show why he might have been one of the top prospects in the 2013 NBA draft. Some would have preferred Rudy Gobert or Giannis Antetokounmpo, given what’s transpired since the draft, but Len stands right up there with the best talents out of that draft and profiles to have an excellent future in the NBA.
This exactly a development sorely needed on a team deep in the throes of a major rebuild.
Contract extension questions
It took a little while, but Len is starting to look like a player the Phoenix Suns can build around in the future. His emergence raises questions regarding his contract extension. Len is first on the list of Suns’ young prospects to negotiate an expensive extension. How will this affect the future of the team?
Let’s assess. Len still has areas of needed growth: his shooting percentage is barely 40 percent, he’s a good free-throw shooter, his mid-range shot is streaky and he lacks dominant post moves. Although he contests lots of shots at the rim, his block rate is trending down. Yet even those who see Len as injury-prone recognize the great strides he made since mid-February. It is time to start thinking about the contract extension which is not too far down the road.
Phoenix GM Ryan McDonough has done a great job of accumulating rookie contract players, but those hoopsters only stay affordable for so long. Len and Archie Goodwin will both be restricted free agents in the summer of 2017. T.J. Warren is up for an extension a year later and Devin Booker in 2019.
Yes, the Suns have a lot of salary cap space at the moment, but that space can disappear quickly if the club elects to extend every rookie contract player who hits free agency. Currently on the books for some $40 million per year to Bledsoe, Knight and Tyson Chandler, the Suns will limit their flexibility to chase other free agents if they give each of their own an extension worth $10 million per year or more.
As for Len, the Ukrainian chose not to sign an extension in the summer of 2016 and lock himself into several more years with Phoenix before he entered his fourth season. He had very little incentive to do that. The league’s salary cap is projected to jump from $70 million to $89 million next season and to $108 million for 2017-2018 (a result of the NBA’s new nine-year, $24 billion TV deal).
The salary cap increase of 27 percent this past summer saw the value of contracts being handed out to free agents as already unprecedented. However, wait one additional year until Len hits restricted free agency and the cap will increase by another 21 percent. How big is a maximum contract under a $108 million salary cap? For players with zero to six years of experience, max salary is worth 25 percent of the cap. Imagine Alex Len getting $27 million per year.
Experts surmise that as the salary cap increases so much, fewer max contracts will be handed out. Huge annual salaries ($30-$35 million) may be reserved for elite stars like LeBron James and Kevin Durant. Len hasn’t proven himself worthy of a max contract yet, so it is almost impossible to justify paying him so much.
This doesn’t negate the fact that center forward is still among the weakest positions in the NBA. If the Suns choose not to pay Len $20 million per year or more, another team could force them to match an offer sheet. The Portland Trail Blazers have done that in the past, forcing Indiana to re-sign Roy Hibbert in 2012 and Oklahoma City into handing Enes Kanter big bucks in 2015.
No matter how it all shakes out, Len stands to earn a ton of money with his next NBA contract.
Ihor Stelmach may be reached at [email protected].