The following quote can be found in an article recently published online in the Observer (“Trump’s Anti-NATO Stance and Praise for Putin May Haunt Him,” June 7):
Adrian Karatnycky, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council where he is co-director of the Ukraine in Europe program, noted that…“There are approximately 9 million Americans who identify themselves as Polish according to the U.S. Census. There is a further 1 million who are Ukrainian American and an equally like number of Americans with ancestral links to the Baltic states. At a time of a mounting threat by Russia to the countries in Eastern Europe and with Russian forces occupying parts of Ukrainian territory, the anxiety level in these communities is quite high… There is a strong core of first- and second-generation voters numbering in the hundreds of thousands who closely follow events in their ancestral homelands and whose electoral choice can be decisively swayed on the issue of NATO and a strong anti-Putin stance… (They) are located in large numbers in potential battleground states: Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.”
As will be shown in this article, the Center for Demographic and Socio-Economic Research of Ukrainian in the U.S. has data that can quantify more precisely Mr. Karatnycky’s observations and bring them down to state, metropolitan and county levels.
The dynamics of the current presidential election campaign have shown that the outcome of the 2016 elections is crucial for the level of support the next U.S. government will provide Ukraine. However, it is important to remember that the November elections will also decide the composition of the House and Senate, as all representatives and 34 of 90 senators are up for election. Thus, the kind of support that the new government may provide Ukraine will be determined not only by who the new president is, but also by the winners of congressional races in each state.
The Center for Demographic and Socio-Economic Research of Ukrainians in the U.S. at the Shevchenko Scientific Society in New York has published data on its website that can be useful in devising strategies for helping elect candidates who are favorably disposed towards Ukraine: http://www.inform-decisions.com/stat/. This data was described in detail in a previous article (The Ukrainian Weekly, January 17). New data has recently been added to the “Voter Statistics” section on the website. We point out here some highlights of the data on the website and illustrate the versatility and utility of the database constructed by the center for making informed decisions about the election process.
Tables in the section “Voter Statistics” of the website present the numbers of potential Ukrainian voters (persons of Ukrainian ancestry who are citizens of the U.S. and age18 and up) by state and major metropolitan areas. Each table presents number of potential Ukrainian voters and the percentage they represent of all voters in the respective state or metropolitan area.
Official Bureau of the Census data show that, in absolute numbers, New York State has 101,700 potential Ukrainian voters, followed by 91,100 in Pennsylvania, 68,700 in California, 49,100 in New Jersey, 36,500 in Florida and 35,700 in Illinois. In relative terms, potential Ukrainian voters constitute 0.9 percent of all potential voters in Pennsylvania, 0.8 percent in New Jersey and New York, and 0.6 percent in Connecticut and Delaware. In metropolitan areas potential Ukrainian voters constitute 1 percent or more of all potential voters in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Rochester.
Ukraine is not the only country affected by Russia’s policies. Other Eastern European countries are similarly threatened by Russia, and their diasporas in the United States also are concerned about U.S. policies regarding Russia. In a separate table on the website we present the numbers and proportions of potential voters of several Eastern European groups combined (Ukrainians, Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians, Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians). In some states they constitute a formidable block of potential voters. For example, they represent more than 10 percent of all potential voters in Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and 8 percent in the battleground state of Ohio.
Data at the state level is useful for Senate candidates; elections for congressmen/congresswomen require data at the voting district level. Such data are not available for Ukrainians (or any ethnic group), but they are available for selected counties. For example, in California we have, among others, data for Los Angeles, Orange and Sacramento counties; in Illinois for Cook, Du Page and Lake counties; in New Jersey for Bergen, Monmouth, Morris and Somerset counties; in New York State for Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Queens, Richmond (Staten Island) and Suffolk counties. An interactive table on the website allows one to select a state and see numbers of potential Ukrainian voters in many counties, as well as the percentage they represent of all potential voters in the county.
The versatility of the database on Ukrainians in the U.S. allows one to make detailed analyses of Ukrainian potential voters. Two new tables have been added to the website: number of Ukrainian potential voters by language spoken at home (Ukrainian, Russian, English and other) by state and by major metropolitan areas.
States with large percentages of Ukrainian-speaking voters (more than 30 percent) are: Iowa, Kentucky and Washington (they also have a high proportion of Fourth Wave immigrants). Only one state, Missouri, has more than 30 percent Russian-speakers. Among the six states with the largest number of potential Ukrainian voters, only Illinois has a significantly larger percentage of Ukrainian versus Russian speakers, 22 percent and 14 percent, respectively. In New York, California and Florida the percentage of Russian-speaking voters is about twice as high as that of Ukrainian speakers, while these percentages are approximately equal in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Among major metropolitan areas, Seattle and Sacramento have the highest percentage of Ukrainian-speaking potential voters, 44 percent and 43 percent, respectively, followed by Portland (Ore.) with 29 percent, Chicago 24 percent and Cleveland 20 percent. Metropolitan areas with high percentages of Russian-speaking potential voters are: San Francisco and Los Angeles with 32 percent each, and New York and Portland (Ore.) with 26 percent each.
To illustrate the potential of the database, examples of profiles of voters are presented for selected states in Table 1. Ukrainians represent close to 1 percent of all potential voters in Pennsylvania, only 9 percent of them are Fourth Wave immigrants (persons of Ukrainian ancestry born in Ukraine who arrived in the U.S. after 1988) and the percentage of Ukrainian and Russian speakers is low. Potential voters in Connecticut have similar characteristics to those in Pennsylvania in terms of language spoken and percentage Fourth Wave, but their relative size is much smaller; they represent only 0.6 percent of all potential voters in the state. The relative size of Ukrainian potential voters in Illinois is quite low, 0.4 percent of all voters, but almost one-fourth of them are Fourth Wave immigrants; 22 percent speak Ukrainian and 14 percent speak Russian. Washington State is an extreme example of the impact of the recent immigration wave from Ukraine. More than half of all potential voters are Fourth Wave immigrants; 37 percent speak Ukrainian at home and 19 percent are Russian-speakers.
These examples illustrate the fact that the composition of Ukrainian potential voters can vary significantly among states and that different strategies for motivating and educating them may be needed. Such profiles can be elaborated for all states and major metropolitan areas.
Data on Ukrainian potential voters at the county level can be useful not only for the November election, but also for congressional primaries being held in the next few months in many states. All counties for which data are available can be found on the website. Some highlights of these data are presented in Tables 2 and 3.
Table 2 lists all counties with more than 5,000 Ukrainian potential voters. Cook County in Illinois has more than 20,000 Ukrainian potential voters, followed by 19,000 in Brooklyn, 15,000 in Los Angeles and 10,000 to 12,000 in Maricopa (Ariz.), Sacramento, Philadelphia and King (Wash.). In many of the counties listed in Table 2, Ukrainian voters represent more than 1 percent of all voters.
In Table 3 we list all counties where Ukrainians represent more than 1 percent of all voters, i.e., 21 counties in eight states. (This is the minimum number of counties; for many counties data are not available due to sampling limitations of the American Community Survey). States with the largest numbers of these counties are: New Jersey (four counties), New York (four counties) and Pennsylvania (six counties). In the following counties Ukrainians constitute between 1.55 percent and 1.88 percent of all voters: Bucks (Pa.), Westmoreland (Pa.), Staten Island (N.Y.), Montgomery (Pa.) and Schuylkill (Pa.).
When interacting with political candidates, one can show them the number of Ukrainian potential voters (as well as of Eastern European voters) available in their state, metropolitan area or county. The numbers are not very high in many places, but evidence shows that many elections have been decided by very small margins. It is important to point out that these are reliable data. They are official Census Bureau data and cannot be labeled as self-serving. Ukrainian potential voters have the added advantage that, compared to the general voting population, they have an older age structure. Older persons tend to have higher voter registration and higher voting participation rates.
Political influence on U.S. foreign policy is one of the most effective ways for Ukrainian Americans to help Ukraine. These data can be used to help achieve electoral results that may contribute to more positive actions regarding Ukraine by the next administration and Congress.
Oleh Wolowyna is director of the Center for Demographic and Socio-Economic Research of Ukrainians in the U.S. E-mail: [email protected].