As this issue of The Weekly goes to press, the top news, of course, is the ceasefire deal reached in Minsk after nearly 17 hours of negotiations that went on through the night of February 11 into February 12. The new Minsk agreement, signed by members of the Trilateral Contact Group (representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics. as well as the OSCE) echoed many of the provisions of the earlier Minsk agreement of September 2014, while providing for the removal of heavy weapons and creating a demilitarized zone. Most importantly, the document requires the withdrawal of foreign armed forces, military equipment and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine. The leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, endorsed the agreement and in a separate declaration reaffirmed their respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
It remains to be seen whether Minsk 2 will be any better than Minsk 1. Should we expect this ceasefire to work, when the previous one failed so abysmally? The devil is in the details and, most importantly, hinges on the willingness of the aggressor to cease and desist. Has Vladimir Putin – who’s proven to be an unreliable “partner,” a trickster, a liar – changed his grand strategy?
There already are differing interpretations of the latest Minsk ceasefire. For example: Where exactly is the demarcation line? To which territories does the “special status” apply? (The original language of the document refers to “certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.”) How and who will deliver and/or oversee humanitarian aid? Then there are the “rebel” leaders, who are questioning some of the agreement’s provisions. And, by the way, the fighting continued in eastern Ukraine, as Russian-backed militants attacked the village of Shyrokyne and fired on Ukrainian armed forces positions near the strategic city of Mariupol. Furthermore, although it had been widely reported that Nadiya Savchenko’s release was part of the Minsk deal, the Russian Duma quickly said there was no mechanism for her automatic release and she still had to stand trial.
Questions and uncertainties abound.
The White House reacted by releasing a statement from the Office of the Press Secretary, that said the U.S. welcomes the agreement, which “represents a potentially significant step toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict and the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty consistent with the Minsk agreements from last September,” but added, “The true test of today’s accord will be in its full and unambiguous implementation, including the durable end of hostilities and the restoration of Ukrainian control over its border with Russia.”
It is worthwhile also to cite the words of President Petro Poroshenko who told the Munich Security Conference: “The aggression against Ukraine has opened a Pandora’s Box for the international security. It must be clear that there are no temporary solutions. This conflict must be resolved, not frozen.” That is why Minsk 2, even if successful, is only a first step.
In the meantime, let’s also keep in mind that Ukraine will in all likelihood still need defensive weapons. As Mr. Poroshenko said in Munich, “The stronger our defense – the more convincing our diplomatic voice.”