KYIV – When President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired the controversial head of his Presidential Office, Andriy Bohdan, and replaced him with Andriy Yermak, a non-staff close adviser who has become increasingly influential in recent months, the move suggested a change in style and approach in the domestic sphere. But the appointment also reaffirmed Mr. Yermak’s position as the Ukrainian president’s chief negotiator with the Kremlin and his stewardship over Ukraine’s foreign policy in general.
On the same day as the personnel change in Kyiv, Moscow confirmed that Dmitry Kozak had replaced Vladyslav Surkov as President Vladimir Putin’s point man for Ukraine. Mr. Yermak has dealt with both Messrs. Surkov and Kozak and told Ukrainian TV on February 10 that, in his view, this was a change for the better.
These developments have fueled speculation that prospects for dialogue between Moscow and Kyiv will be enhanced, but at the same time renewed questions about the degree of compromise the two sides might be willing to make.
Before leaving for the Munich Security Conference in Germany, President Zelenskyy commented candidly on how he views the current state of Russian-Ukrainian relations and the Normandy format process. On February 11, in an interview for Interfax-Ukraine shown on Ukrainian TV, he suggested that his first meeting with President Putin at the Normandy four summit in Paris in December 2019 had been an ice-breaker. “When you have eye-to-eye contact, you immediately realize who is front of you, what kind of person,” he explained. “I think he understood me. And he understands that this war must be finished.”
For the first time, Mr. Zelenskyy also offered his view on what Russia risks if it continues its aggressive course towards Ukraine: “dissolution in the form in which it exists today.” It is clear to all, he said, that Russia wants to rebuild a latter-day version of the Soviet Union through territorial expansion. If Mr. Putin persists, “Escalation and seizure of such a large country as Ukraine is, I am sure, the only really dangerous step for Russia, which may result in a bitter domestic conflict in Russia.” This consideration, the Ukrainian president believes, should be a restraining factor for his Russian counterpart.
Mr. Zelenskyy also indicated that he was encouraged that in Paris all the parties – the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia – to a greater or lesser extent understood that it is necessary to change the Minsk accords of 2014-2015 because they are not working, and he sensed that even “Russia is preparing to think this over.” This recognition of “Minsk flexibility” was a step forward. In his view, the achievement of peace remains the goal, for in the end it will be not about winners and losers but “a victory for everyone.”
Turning from the Donbas to Crimea, President Zelenskyy acknowledged that this issue was “even more complicated.” He added cryptically: “But we are also working on it. I cannot say more so far.”
The following day, at his first press conference as head of the Presidential Office, or chief of staff, Mr. Yermak reaffirmed that “ending the war in the Donbas in the interests of Ukraine” remains the priority. He carefully stressed that President Zelenskyy and his administration will continue to adhere to the principles they have enumerated from the outset in this regard, and respect the “red lines” that have been drawn.
In order to pre-empt possible new fears about official Kyiv’s intentions, Mr. Yermak addressed a sensitive issue generating concern: the conditions under which elections could be held in the territories currently occupied by Russia’s forces. “I want to reiterate,” he stressed, “that in accordance with Ukrainian legislation, elections are impossible if there are any foreign military units and illegal armed people on the territory, and the border of Ukraine is not under government control. This is provided for by the legislation of Ukraine, and we plan to hold elections in accordance with the legislation of Ukraine,” he said.
Mr. Yermak also dispelled rumors that the Ukrainian and Russian presidents were preparing to meet before the next Normandy format summit expected in April. “The decision will be made by the president,” he said. “ If he sees this meeting as necessary, if it could be a step towards getting real results from the Normandy format talks, we do not rule it out. But so far, there are no arrangements, no talks on this topic.”
During the press conference, Mr. Yermak, a lawyer and film producer, confirmed that he would remain responsible within the Presidential Office not only for negotiations with Moscow, but foreign policy in general.
Observers noted that the formal empowerment of Mr. Yermak in this role further sidelines the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its leader, Vadym Prystaiko. The rumor mill has been particularly active on this matter. Foreign Affairs Minister Prystaiko was earlier reported to have been considering resigning, while well-informed sources told The Ukrainian Weekly that during the behind-the-scenes power struggle between Messrs. Bohdan and Yermak the latter had been offered the post of foreign affairs minister but had turned it down.
Against this background, several important meetings in the foreign policy sphere have taken place or are scheduled. On February 12, President Zelenskyy met with European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi to discuss Ukraine’s progress in implementing reforms. According to the president’s press service, “they agreed on the priorities of cooperation for the current year, including the signing of the Common Aviation Area Agreement, beginning of negotiations on the so-called industrial visa waiver, deepening of cooperation in the digital sector, cooperation in the framework of the European Green Deal and beginning of system updates of the annexes to the Association Agreement.”
Also on February 12, the latest meeting of the working groups of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) on the peaceful settlement of the situation in eastern Ukraine was held in Minsk. Despite the improved atmosphere since the last Normandy format summit, no major breakthrough was expected or reported. A general ceasefire along the frontline in the Donbas, agreed to in Paris, is still not in sight, and Ukrainian soldiers continue to be killed or be wounded. Progress was reported in identifying a new spot for the local disengagement of forces, and Ukraine has handed over a new list of hostages held by the Russian side that it wants released.
In view of this enduring situation, Kyiv has informed Moscow that it is premature to have a Russian ambassador back in the Ukrainian capital. Responding to Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov’s suggestion made on February 10 that the two countries could now restore their respective ambassadors, Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the following day: “Given Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine and the Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories, there is no reason to raise the status of diplomatic relations by appointing an ambassador of Ukraine.”